Water - but for how long?

Originally posted in The Chron:

While winter and spring rains have brought some relief to a thirsty Lake Conroe - its recent historically low water levels are a constant reminder of last year's unforgiving weather.

But as people flood Montgomery County in record numbers, its water woes will only get much deeper.

The county was among the top 25 fastest-growing areas in the nation during the past decade, according to 2010 U.S. Census data.

And as the state's regional water planning group for the Houston metropolitan area enters its fourth cycle this year, it expects the population to more than double by the year 2060.

Despite its recent troubles, all eyes are on Lake Conroe to meet a growing need for water.

Montgomery County will tap its prized lake for municipal use starting in 2016; the plan is to reduce reliance on groundwater and find alternative sources.

But will it keep the well from running dry?

Watching the water

Lake Conroe experienced record thirst pangs in 2011 thanks to a severe drought and emergency withdrawals.

It came up approximately 8.2 feet short of its normal 201 feet by the end of last year, said Jace Houston, deputy general manager of the San Jacinto River Authority. It's currently around 3 feet below normal. The lake was last full in March 2010, Houston said.

"It's just been going down gradually ever since then because of the drought," he said.

Low water levels were a pain for many business and property owners, whose waterfronts slowly became withered vegetation and exposed soil.

"Having very limited access to the lake isn't good for the local businesses or recreational use," said Mike Bleier, president of the Lake Conroe Association.

Consumer purchases from businesses around the lake decrease if lake use goes down, Bleier said. And the county loses out on sales tax revenues.

Limited access to the lake also drives down property values and tax revenues for the county, he said.

Record-setting summer temperatures and little rain were only partly to blame for the low water levels.

The city of Houston withdrew Lake Conroe water between September and late November to replenish Lake Houston's treatment plants.

This marks only the second time Houston has taken the emergency step to withdraw water from Lake Conroe. The last time was in 1989 when Lake Conroe dropped to its record low.

Lake Conroe lost more than a foot of water each month from evaporation and municipal release, Houston said.

Still, he maintains that Lake Conroe is built to survive a seven-year drought. And even though no one can estimate what's going to happen in the next five years, Houston expects the lake to fill back up before it's tapped for municipal use.

Groundwater plan

Where will Montgomery County get its future water supply? The answer is likely from several sources, according to the county's groundwater reduction plan.

Aside from a few small irrigators and a power plant in Willis, all municipalities currently use water from the ground - mostly from the Gulf Coast Aquifer.

But the county will soon start tapping Lake Conroe, which was originally built as a water supply, to reduce dependence on groundwater; it's mandated to reduce consumption by nearly a third before 2016.

Groundwater levels started dropping in the 1980s, according to the San Jacinto River Authority.

A growing population's demand for water exceeded the aquifer's ability recharge by 30 percent in 2009. In the next 30 years, the authority expects demand to be two-and-a-half times the recharge rate.